Podgorica – Montenegro will become a member of the European union in 2015, that is the result of a pole in which 38 famous European and world companies, dealing with financial services and analysis of markets in development, took part in.
In the pole which was done by the agency Reuters from the 10th to 16th of April with the average of the replies of the participants they came to the estimate that the year 2015 is the year when Montenegro, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Albania will enter in EU, while Turkey would wait until the year 2019. Croatia has the best position for which it is estimated that it will join the elite club in 2010.
The opinion of the participants of the pole is that Montenegro earliest could be found in EU in 2012, and latest until 2020. The same prognosis is given for Serbia, while for BiH and Albania it is estimated that they can possibly wait until 2030, with the fact that they also can enter EU earliest in 2012. The opinion which is valid for Croatia is that that country, which from all countries of the west Balkan has came closest on its way towards EU because it is negotiating about the membership, is that it will become a member of EU earliest in 2009, and latest in 2013. The prognosis for Turkey for which some of the participants of the pole said that it will never be a part f EU is that t will surely wait until the year 2014, but not longer that 2025.
Macedonia, which is on its way to join the Union immediately behind Croatia, and before Albania, Montenegro, Serbia, and BiH because it got the status of a candidate for membership, was not found in the pole. Albania has a signed Contract about the stabilization and joining with EU, which is the first significant step towards EU, because with that the terms of adjustment of internal legislation to the law in EU are being defined. Montenegro has accepted that agreement, and the negotiations about the stabilization and joining with Serbia and BiH are blocked at the moment. With Serbia because of the lack of cooperation with the tribunal in Hague, and with BiH because of the internal problems and resistance to form strong joined institutions, to which objects Srpska Republic.
In Reuters’s pole following companies took part in: ABN AMRO; Alliance Dresdner; Banca Intesa’ Bayerische Landesbank; Bear Stearns; BNP Paribas; Calyon; Ceska Sporitelna; Citigroup, Cominvest Asset Mgt; CSOB; Deutsche Bank; DIW; Dresdner Kleinwort’ DZ Bank; Finance Invest; Fitch Ratings; Global Insight; Helaba; HSBC; HVB Bank Czech Republic; ING Financial Markets, Institute of Public Affairs; JP Morgan; KBC Asset Mgt; Kingston University; Kopint – Tarki; Morgan Stanley; Nordea: Oppenheim Research; Raiffeisen Bank Romania; RZB. Societe Generale; Standard Bank; Standard & Poor’s; Tera Stock Brockers, UBS; and Unicredit MIB.
IT IS BETTER TO FINISH OUR WORK THAN TO DEAL WITH PROGNOSIS
The vice president of Government for European integrations professor PhD Gordana Djurovic noted that the data from Reuters pole match with some earlier predictions that Montenegro will be able to count on membership in EU from 2012 and further on, and Croatia from 2009 and further on. Djurovic said for “Vijesti” that that depends on the wide variety of factors.
“First of all from the integration capacity of European Union and absorb capacity of the countries candidates to adopt the European standards. That integration capacity of EU (the capability of EU to receive new members) will not be defined before 2009 when the elections for the European Parliament are happening. As for us, we have a lot of tasks and for us it is better not to go to much in the prognosis, but in stead we should finish one deal at a time” pointed out Djurovic.